TLT weekly, new trade sept/24/2012

TLT (30min, hourly, 4 hour, daily) charts

Looking at purely technical data, we think TLT was going sideways or higher because of the push from the last few days. Selling $121.5 weekly puts looks like a safe way to play TLT.

Trade:
Sell $121.5 weekly put
Buy $120 weekly put
(Got 30c credit)


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Family Dollar Stores, Inc.(NYSE:FDO), new trade sept/24/2012

Trade update (Oct/19/2012):
Expired worhless for  100% of credit profit
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I have been watching FDO for a long time now to break the downtrend. A lot of metrics are showing that FDO might start the run up again for atleast a few days and we wanted to get in it to atleast get a slow decaying premium on our side. If it continues we will start to get in something stronger on the vertical side. As seen in weekly chart, FDO is in clear uptrend. We have stop losses in place in case this goes against as our max loss is a lot more than max profit.

FDO daily chart

FDO weekly chart

Trade-:
Sell $62.5 Oct Put
Buy $62 Oct Put
(Get 55c credit)


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"We've lost control" - Ron Paul - Sep/13/2012

Paul argues on Bernanke's decision "We are creating money out of thin air" and "country should panic over Fed's decision". Embedded video below.




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Akamai Technologies, Inc.(AKAM), new trade sept/13/2012

Trade update (Sep/22/2012):
Closed Trade-1 for 95c for 36% profit
Closed Trade-2 for the max profit of 31c for 45% profit
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We see that AKAM has been in bullish territory for some time now so it has good chances the momentum will continue to the upside. After a few days of pullback it is now starting to make a move today and we added a few trades for moderate upside. If it continues the rally we may get something for strong upside too. Look for AKAM to close at the highs of the day to ride it through. We have stop losses in place in case this goes against.

Trade-1:
Buy $37 Sept Call - 1.36
Sell $38 Sept Call - 0.66
(Paid 70c)

Trade-2:
Sell $38 Sept Put - 0.5
Buy $37 Sept Put - 0.19
(Got 31c credit)


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Facebook Inc, FB new trade sept/11/2012

Trade update (Sep/22/2012):
Closed this trade for $1.95 for approx. 70% profit
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Our second trade in FB in just a few days. I wanted to do a weekly expiration but thought it's better to give it a few days time.

Trade:
Buy $18 Sept Call - 1.50
Sell $20 Sept Call - 0.35

I got this spread for $1.15. I believe the momentum on FB is to the upside now and if it continues for just a day or two more we make money with this spread. The only way we lose money here is if we go sharply lower right after we get in. I have a stop loss in place if it goes lower tomorrow, otherwise I ride it into next week.

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GM vs FB, and new FB trade Sep/10/2012

Trade update (Sep/22/2012):
Both puts expired worthless giving us 55c for approx. 122% profit
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GM's price today $22 (IPO high price was ~ $40)
FB's price today is $19 (IPO high price ~ $40)
Although the post-IPO results of Facebook have been similar to GM's, the FB debacle is considered horrendous while our president calls General Motors a success story. Related link.


Chartwise GM may look more attractive to the upside, I want to play FB to moderate upside on how it formed a kicker pattern a few days back and has held the previous lows. Although there are no guarantees, but I think it has formed an intermediate low and is trying to come out of oversold conditions. I have stop loss in place in case this goes against.

 










TRADE:
Sell 1 sep/22 $19 put
Buy 1 sep/22 $18 put
(Got a credit of 55c on Sep/5)
 

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Watch for a fakeout in SPX. Time to short again Aug/13/2012?

Watchout for a fake run up followed by a close like this (img below) to capture more pigs. High chances that this occurs just a few days before options expiration. I am looking for tue/wed for a reversal. Looking to get into a put spread going into 1380 for coming weeks.

SPX candle possibility going into tue/wed

VIX showing high levels of complacency?

Last time we saw VIX this low was in mid march after which markets started to wobble a bit and we got a nice correction. RUT and BANK index starting to show some weakness in images below.

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Cover your shorts Aug/02/2012 ?

Markets made a good move to the downside from our alert few days back LINK. This may be a time to cover shorts and take profits or to atleast cover some shorts. I covered a few shorts, mainly indices and went long into tomorrow at close today to hedge myself. These are the positions I will be closing during the day tomorrow or might keep until next week. I do believe there are chances that the markets will fall soon, but it just needs to breathe first. High TRIN reading of 2.19 suggests a possibility of short term bounce too.

SPX daily chart

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